Real Madrid
v
Sevilla

La Liga · Sun 18 Oct · 21:00 · Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Head-to-head — last 5 at Real Madrid (home)

W 2026-10-18 Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla
W 2025-12-20 Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla
W 2024-12-22 Real Madrid 4–2 Sevilla
W 2024-02-25 Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla
W 2022-10-22 Real Madrid 3–1 Sevilla
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.35 → Real Madrid (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
AValencia
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
ASantander
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ABarcelona
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HSevilla
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HVillarreal
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
AAth Madrid
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-15
AElche
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HVallecano
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-04
ABetis
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HMalaga
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
4–7
3–3
0–0
2026-08-26
HSociedad
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-06
HAlaves
D
0–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
AGetafe
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-26
HOsasuna
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
AReal Madrid
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-12
ALevante
D
3–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HBarcelona
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-16
ALa Coruna
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-11
HValencia
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-11
HValencia
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AEspanol
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
HAth Madrid
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-29
HAth Madrid
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AAth Bilbao
W
3–1
3–10
5–2
0–1
2026-08-22
AAth Bilbao
W
3–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-15
HVallecano
W
2–1
1–2
4–4
1–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-18
HSevilla
W
4–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-17
ASevilla
W
1–0
4–4
0–4
0–0
2025-12-20
HSevilla
W
2–0
6–5
2–5
0–1
2025-05-18
ASevilla
W
2–0
7–1
1–0
0–2
2024-12-22
HSevilla
W
4–2
6–6
1–2
0–0
2024-02-25
HSevilla
W
1–0
7–2
1–3
0–0
2023-10-21
ASevilla
D
1–1
6–4
2–5
0–0
2023-05-27
ASevilla
W
2–1
1–1
4–2
0–1
2022-10-22
HSevilla
W
3–1
4–3
1–4
0–0
2022-04-17
ASevilla
W
3–2
3–0
4–3
0–0
2021-11-28
HSevilla
W
2–1
0–4
3–3
0–0
2021-05-09
HSevilla
D
2–2
7–3
1–2
0–0
2020-12-05
ASevilla
W
1–0
3–4
3–1
0–0
2020-01-18
HSevilla
W
2–1
2–4
3–1
0–0
2019-09-22
ASevilla
W
1–0
6–9
2–3
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Real Madrid — higher 1H SOT, possession and shots
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Possession %
70
42
xG
0.69
0.63
Shots
7.6
5.5
On target
3.0
2.2
Off target
3.2
2.4
Corners
2.0
1.5
Yellow cards
1.1
0.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Real Madrid — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Possession %
69
42
xG
1.08
0.34
Shots
8.7
5.4
On target
3.9
1.7
Off target
2.7
1.9
Corners
0.9
2.0
Yellow cards
0.0
1.0
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · HOME (72.4%)
1 · Real Madrid
72%
X · Draw
18%
2 · Sevilla
10%
Real Madrid at home
Expected goals: 2.66
Conceded goals: 0.98
Sevilla away
Expected goals: 1.32
Conceded goals: 1.8
Projected for this match: Real Madrid 1.92 — 1.21 Sevilla
Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.92 — 1.21 Sevilla

Likely scores

1-110.4%
2-19.8%
1-08.1%

Goals markets

Over 1.582.3%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.2%
BTTS60.2%

Corners (90 min)

Real Madrid5.2
Sevilla3.7

Yellow cards (90 min)

Real Madrid2.1
Sevilla2.8
1H total1.5
2H total3.3

Second half

Real Madrid
41%
Level
35%
Sevilla
24%
Expected 2H goals Real Madrid 0.94 — 0.65 Sevilla

2H corners split

Expected total4.7
Real Madrid2.7
Sevilla1.9

2H yellow cards split

Expected total3.3
Real Madrid1.4
Sevilla1.9
2H reds (exp.)0.2

First half

Level medium confidence
1H · Real Madrid
37%
1H · Draw
40%
1H · Sevilla
23%
Expected 1H goals Real Madrid 0.79 — 0.54 Sevilla · Over 0.5: Over (74%) · Over 1.5: Under (38%)

1H corners split

Expected total4.3
Real Madrid2.5
Sevilla1.8
O/U 4.5Under · 57%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1.5
Real Madrid0.7
Sevilla0.9
O/U 1.5Under · 56%
2H expected total3.3
Real Madrid 2H1.4
Sevilla 2H1.9
1H reds (exp.)0.1

Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (0.34 xG) is Real Madrid's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Alfon (0.18 xG) is Sevilla's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Real Madrid · 5 listed

Vinicius Juniorsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Aurelien Tchouamenidoubt
1 · Muscle
Ferland Mendydoubt
1 · Hip
Rodrygoinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Raul Asenciodoubt
1 · Lower leg

Sevilla · 6 listed

Manu Buenosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Isaac Romerosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Ruben Vargasdoubt
1 · Illness
Gerard Fernandezdoubt
1 · Hamstring
Marcaodoubt
1 · Muscle
Miguel Angel Sierradoubt
1 · Other

Match analysis

Real Madrid vs Sevilla (La Liga). Model call: Real Madrid to win match full time (72% / 18% / 10%).

Real Madrid holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Real Madrid 1.92 — 1.21 Sevilla. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Real Madrid. Real Madrid home form +1.68; Sevilla away form -0.47.

First-half lean: Level. Without Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid's full-time attack is trimmed. Without Manu Bueno, Sevilla's full-time chance creation is trimmed.