Lazio
v
Milan

Serie A · Sat 12 Sep · 18:00 · Referee: Matteo Marcenaro

Head-to-head — last 5 at Lazio (home)

D 2026-09-12 Lazio 2–2 Milan
W 2026-03-15 Lazio 1–0 Milan
D 2024-08-31 Lazio 2–2 Milan
L 2024-03-01 Lazio 0–1 Milan
W 2023-01-24 Lazio 4–0 Milan
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): 0 → Lazio (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HMilan
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-07
AUdinese
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HGenoa
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-24
ABologna
W
1–0
6–8
4–4
0–0
2026-05-23
HPisa
W
2–1
5–1
2–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ARoma
L
0–2
3–8
3–2
1–1
2026-05-09
HInter
L
0–3
5–1
2–1
1–0
2026-05-04
ACremonese
W
2–1
3–3
2–1
0–0
2026-04-27
HUdinese
D
3–3
4–5
3–1
0–0
2026-04-18
ANapoli
W
2–0
0–12
3–1
0–0
2026-04-13
AFiorentina
L
0–1
6–5
2–3
0–0
2026-04-04
HParma
D
1–1
7–2
1–2
0–0
2026-03-22
ABologna
W
2–0
1–2
1–1
0–0
2026-03-15
HMilan
W
1–0
1–9
4–1
0–0
2026-03-09
HSassuolo
W
2–1
1–6
0–4
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
ALazio
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ATorino
W
2–1
4–2
1–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HCagliari
L
1–2
5–5
2–2
0–0
2026-05-17
AGenoa
W
2–1
4–4
3–2
0–0
2026-05-10
HAtalanta
L
2–3
2–2
3–3
0–0
2026-05-03
ASassuolo
L
0–2
3–2
4–4
1–0
2026-04-26
HJuventus
D
0–0
1–3
2–3
0–0
2026-04-19
AVerona
W
1–0
1–6
0–2
0–0
2026-04-11
HUdinese
L
0–3
4–3
1–1
0–0
2026-04-06
ANapoli
L
0–1
3–4
0–2
0–0
2026-03-21
HTorino
W
3–2
4–6
3–1
0–0
2026-03-15
ALazio
L
0–1
9–1
1–4
0–0
2026-03-08
HInter
W
1–0
1–6
2–2
0–0
2026-03-01
ACremonese
W
2–0
7–6
0–2
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-12
HMilan
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-03-15
HMilan
W
1–0
1–9
4–1
0–0
2025-11-29
AMilan
L
0–1
4–1
3–3
0–0
2025-03-02
AMilan
W
2–1
5–3
1–2
0–1
2024-08-31
HMilan
D
2–2
5–7
4–2
0–0
2024-03-01
HMilan
L
0–1
2–5
5–6
3–0
2023-09-30
AMilan
L
0–2
1–7
2–3
0–0
2023-05-06
AMilan
L
0–2
4–6
4–2
0–0
2023-01-24
HMilan
W
4–0
3–4
1–2
0–0
2022-04-24
HMilan
L
1–2
2–8
3–4
0–0
2021-09-12
AMilan
L
0–2
1–5
4–1
0–0
2021-04-26
HMilan
W
3–0
1–9
2–0
0–0
2020-12-23
AMilan
L
2–3
6–4
4–2
0–0
2020-07-04
HMilan
L
0–3
5–1
1–1
0–0
2019-11-03
AMilan
W
2–1
4–8
5–3
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

Too close to call
Lazio
Milan
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
1.8
2.0
Yellow cards (est.)
0.7
0.6
Red cards (est.)
0.0
0.0
Too close to call
Lazio
Milan
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
2.0
2.2
Yellow cards (est.)
1.5
1.3
Red cards (est.)
0.1
0.1

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Lazio
31%
X · Draw
37%
2 · Milan
32%
Lazio at home
Expected goals: 1.35
Conceded goals: 1.54
Milan away
Expected goals: 1.38
Conceded goals: 0.85
Projected for this match: Lazio 1.14 — 1.29 Milan
Expected goals: Lazio 1.14 — 1.29 Milan

Likely scores

1-113.3%
0-111%
1-09.7%

Goals markets

Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.543.8%
Over 3.522.7%
BTTS49.6%

Corners (90 min)

Lazio3.8
Milan4.3

Yellow cards (90 min)

Lazio2.2
Milan1.9
1H total1.3
2H total2.8

Second half

Lazio
33%
Level
39%
Milan
28%
Expected 2H goals Lazio 0.75 — 0.67 Milan

2H corners split

Expected total4.2
Lazio2
Milan2.2

2H yellow cards split

Expected total2.8
Lazio1.5
Milan1.3
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Lazio
25%
1H · Draw
47%
1H · Milan
28%
Expected 1H goals Lazio 0.48 — 0.53 Milan · Over 0.5: Over (63%) · Over 1.5: Under (27%)

1H corners split

Expected total3.9
Lazio1.8
Milan2
O/U 3.5Over · 55%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1.3
Lazio0.7
Milan0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 63%
2H expected total2.8
Lazio 2H1.5
Milan 2H1.3
1H reds (exp.)0.1

Mario Gila (0.49 xG) is Lazio's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Without Santiago Giménez (0.17 xG), Milan's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Squad availability

Lazio · 10 listed

Ze Pedrodoubt
1 · Other
Nicolo Rovellasuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Kenneth Taylorsuspension
1 · Yellow cards
Nuno Tavaressuspension
1 · Yellow cards
Luca Pellegrinidoubt
1 · Not registered
Nicolo Rovellainjury
1 · Calf
Fisayo Dele-Bashiruinjury
1 · Hamstring
Adam Marusicinjury
1 · Hamstring
Alessio Furlanettoinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Toma Basicdoubt
1 · Other

Milan · 1 listed

Santiago Gimenezsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)

Match analysis

Lazio vs Milan (Serie A). Model call: Draw (31% / 37% / 32%).

Lazio holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Lazio 1.14 — 1.29 Milan. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Lazio. Lazio home form -0.19; Milan away form +0.53.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Nicolo Rovella, Lazio's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Santiago Gimenez, Milan's full-time attack is trimmed as well.