Milan
v
Lecce

Serie A · Sun 20 Sep · 20:45 · Referee: Federico La Penna

Head-to-head — last 5 at Milan (home)

W 2026-09-20 Milan 3–0 Lecce
W 2026-01-18 Milan 1–0 Lecce
W 2024-09-27 Milan 3–0 Lecce
W 2024-04-06 Milan 3–0 Lecce
W 2023-04-23 Milan 2–0 Lecce
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.35 → Milan (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
AGenoa
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HInter
W
3–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-28
HBologna
L
2–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
AUdinese
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HAtalanta
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
ASassuolo
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
HLecce
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ALazio
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ALazio
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AJuventus
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ATorino
W
2–1
4–2
1–0
0–0
2026-08-23
ATorino
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HCagliari
L
1–2
5–5
2–2
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
ATorino
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
HGenoa
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-29
AFrosinone
L
1–5
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
HJuventus
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
AUdinese
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
HBologna
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
AMilan
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
HMonza
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
HMonza
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-07
ACagliari
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-07
ACagliari
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
HRoma
L
0–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
AVenezia
W
2–0
3–5
3–1
0–0
2026-08-23
AVenezia
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HGenoa
W
1–0
1–6
2–0
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-20
HLecce
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-01-18
HLecce
W
1–0
10–2
1–1
0–0
2025-08-29
ALecce
W
2–0
5–4
0–1
0–0
2025-03-08
ALecce
W
3–2
7–2
1–2
0–0
2024-09-27
HLecce
W
3–0
4–7
1–1
1–0
2024-04-06
HLecce
W
3–0
5–1
1–1
0–1
2023-11-11
ALecce
D
2–2
1–3
6–4
1–0
2023-04-23
HLecce
W
2–0
4–2
1–0
0–0
2023-01-14
ALecce
D
2–2
4–8
2–1
0–0
2020-06-22
ALecce
W
4–1
4–5
1–1
0–0
2019-10-20
HLecce
D
2–2
8–2
1–2
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

Too close to call
Milan
Lecce
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
2.1
1.7
Yellow cards (est.)
0.5
0.7
Red cards (est.)
0.0
0.0
Too close to call
Milan
Lecce
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
—
Shots
—
—
On target
—
—
Off target
—
—
Corners (est.)
2.3
1.8
Yellow cards (est.)
1.1
1.4
Red cards (est.)
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Milan
46%
X · Draw
33%
2 · Lecce
21%
Milan at home
Expected goals: 1.21
Conceded goals: 1.32
Lecce away
Expected goals: 1.09
Conceded goals: 1.18
Projected for this match: Milan 1.23 — 1.24 Lecce
Expected goals: Milan 1.23 — 1.24 Lecce

Likely scores

1-113.3%
0-110.1%
1-010%

Goals markets

Over 1.571%
Over 2.544.8%
Over 3.523.6%
BTTS50.7%

Corners (90 min)

Milan4.4
Lecce3.5

Yellow cards (90 min)

Milan1.7
Lecce2
1H total1.2
2H total2.5

Second half

Milan
32%
Level
39%
Lecce
29%
Expected 2H goals Milan 0.72 — 0.66 Lecce

2H corners split

Expected total4.1
Milan2.3
Lecce1.8

2H yellow cards split

Expected total2.5
Milan1.1
Lecce1.4

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Milan
21%
1H · Draw
49%
1H · Lecce
30%
Expected 1H goals Milan 0.4 — 0.52 Lecce · Over 0.5: Over (60%) · Over 1.5: Under (23%)

1H corners split

Expected total3.8
Milan2.1
Lecce1.7
O/U 3.5Over · 53%

1H yellow cards split

Expected total1.2
Milan0.5
Lecce0.7
O/U 1.5Under · 66%
2H expected total2.5
Milan 2H1.1
Lecce 2H1.4

Without Santiago Giménez (0.17 xG), Milan's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Lameck Banda (0.26 xG) is Lecce's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Milan · 7 listed

Santiago Gimenezsuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Strahinja Pavlovicdoubt
1 · Physical discom
Samuel Chukwuezeinjury
1 · Hip
Fikayo Tomoriinjury
1 · Hamstring
Ruben Loftus-Cheekdoubt
1 · Thigh
Matteo Gabbiainjury
1 · Other
Pietro Terraccianodoubt
1 · Shoulder

Lecce · 5 listed

Riccardo Sottilinjury
1 · Low back
Joel Monteirodoubt
1 · Calf
Santiago Pierottiinjury
1 · Ankle
Medon Berishadoubt
1 · Thigh
Ivan Ilicdoubt
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Milan vs Lecce (Serie A). Model call: Milan to win match full time (46% / 33% / 21%).

Projected xG Milan 1.23 — 1.24 Lecce. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Milan.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Santiago Gimenez, Milan's full-time attack is trimmed as well. Without Riccardo Sottil, Lecce's full-time attack is trimmed.