Expected 1H goals Everton 0.8 — 0.44 Crystal Palace · Over 0.5: Over (71%)
· Over 1.5: Under (35%)
1H corners
Expected total5.3
Everton2.9
Crystal Palace2.4
O/U 5.5Under · 56%
1H yellow cards
Expected total0.9
Everton0.4
Crystal Palace0.5
O/U 1.5Under · 77%
2H expected total2.2
Everton 2H1.1
Crystal Palace 2H1.1
Tierney averages 1.1 yellows before HT, around the usual 1H card pace.
Tierney averages 2.4 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.
Beto (0.21 xG) is Everton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.
Without Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.26 xG), Crystal Palace's first-half goal line is trimmed.
Squad availability
Everton · 1 listed
Christian Noergaardinjury
1 · Other
Crystal Palace · 4 listed
Axel Disasisuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Ismaila Sarrdoubt
1 · Groin
Jean-Philippe Matetainjury
1 · Thigh
Chadi Riadinjury
1 · Knee
Match analysis
Everton vs Crystal Palace (Premier League). Model call: Everton to win match full time (66% / 23% / 11%).
Everton holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Everton 1.68 — 0.97 Crystal Palace. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Everton. Everton home form +0.12; Crystal Palace away form -0.9.
First-half lean: No bet. Without Christian Noergaard, Everton's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Jean-Philippe Mateta, Crystal Palace's full-time attack is trimmed as well.