Brighton
v
Crystal Palace

Premier League · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 · Referee: Robert Jones

Head-to-head — last 5 at Brighton (home)

W 2026-10-18 Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace
L 2026-02-08 Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace
L 2024-12-15 Brighton 1–3 Crystal Palace
W 2024-02-03 Brighton 4–1 Crystal Palace
W 2023-03-15 Brighton 1–0 Crystal Palace
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.14 → Crystal Palace (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HBrentford
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
AMan City
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ALiverpool
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HCrystal Palace
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HArsenal
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLeeds
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HMan United
L
0–3
0–3
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ALeeds
L
0–1
8–7
0–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HLiverpool
L
1–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
ATottenham
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
HNewcastle
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
ABrighton
L
0–5
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-11
HNott'm Forest
W
3–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-20
ALeeds
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HIpswich
L
2–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HIpswich
L
2–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
AFulham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HMan City
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-28
HMan City
L
1–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AEverton
L
0–2
0–4
1–0
0–0
2026-08-22
AEverton
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HArsenal
L
1–2
3–4
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ABrentford
D
2–2
4–9
3–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-10-18
HCrystal Palace
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-02-08
HCrystal Palace
L
0–1
3–4
1–3
0–0
2025-11-09
ACrystal Palace
D
0–0
8–4
4–1
0–0
2025-04-05
ACrystal Palace
L
1–2
4–2
1–0
1–2
2024-12-15
HCrystal Palace
L
1–3
8–5
1–4
0–0
2024-02-03
HCrystal Palace
W
4–1
3–2
1–3
0–0
2023-12-21
ACrystal Palace
D
1–1
1–3
2–5
0–0
2023-03-15
HCrystal Palace
W
1–0
1–4
1–2
0–0
2023-02-11
ACrystal Palace
D
1–1
6–1
1–4
0–0
2022-01-14
HCrystal Palace
D
1–1
9–0
0–2
0–0
2021-09-27
ACrystal Palace
D
1–1
5–6
3–2
0–0
2021-02-22
HCrystal Palace
L
1–2
13–0
2–0
0–0
2020-10-18
ACrystal Palace
D
1–1
5–2
2–3
1–0
2020-02-29
HCrystal Palace
L
0–1
8–7
1–1
0–0
2019-12-16
ACrystal Palace
D
1–1
7–3
1–1
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Brighton — higher 1H possession
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Possession %
59
44
xG
0.77
0.80
Shots
5.6
5.5
On target
1.7
2.2
Off target
2.5
1.4
Corners
2.0
2.7
Yellow cards
0.5
0.9
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Brighton — higher 2H xG, SOT and possession
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Possession %
56
42
xG
0.93
0.56
Shots
8.1
4.9
On target
2.9
1.8
Off target
2.6
1.8
Corners
2.3
1.3
Yellow cards
1.2
1.6
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

BET · HOME (76.8%)
1 · Brighton
77%
X · Draw
16%
2 · Crystal Palace
7%
Brighton at home
Expected goals: 1.81
Conceded goals: 0.92
Crystal Palace away
Expected goals: 0.97
Conceded goals: 1.87
Projected for this match: Brighton 1.88 — 0.79 Crystal Palace
Expected goals: Brighton 1.88 — 0.79 Crystal Palace

Likely scores

1-012.6%
2-012.2%
1-110.6%

Goals markets

Over 1.575%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%
BTTS46.8%

Corners (90 min)

Brighton5.4
Crystal Palace4.1

Yellow cards (90 min)

Brighton1.3
Crystal Palace1.9
1H total1.1
2H total2.1
Jones averages 3.9 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Brighton
35%
Level
43%
Crystal Palace
22%
Expected 2H goals Brighton 0.67 — 0.48 Crystal Palace

2H corners

Expected total4.4
Brighton2.4
Crystal Palace2

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.1
Brighton1
Crystal Palace1.2
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

Brighton lead medium confidence
1H · Brighton
48%
1H · Draw
35%
1H · Crystal Palace
17%
Expected 1H goals Brighton 1.05 — 0.5 Crystal Palace · Over 0.5: Over (79%) · Over 1.5: Under (46%)

1H corners

Expected total5.1
Brighton3
Crystal Palace2.1
O/U 4.5Over · 58%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.1
Brighton0.4
Crystal Palace0.7
O/U 1.5Under · 70%
2H expected total2.1
Brighton 2H1
Crystal Palace 2H1.2
Jones averages 2.8 yellows before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Jones averages 2.5 yellows after HT, which trims the 2H card line.

Danny Welbeck (0.25 xG) is Brighton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Without Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.26 xG), Crystal Palace's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Squad availability

Brighton · 8 listed

Matias Orozcosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pascal Struijkdoubt
1 · Thigh
Femi Azeezinjury
1 · Thigh
Zadok Yohannainjury
1 · Other
Kaoru Mitomainjury
1 · Hamstring
Stefanos Tzimasinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Evan Fergusoninjury
1 · Ankle
Carlos Balebainjury
1 · Thigh

Crystal Palace · 5 listed

Jean-Philippe Matetasuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
J. Strand Larsendoubt
1 · Ankle
Ismaila Sarrinjury
1 · Groin
Takehiro Tomiyasuinjury
1 · Calf
Chadi Riadinjury
1 · Knee

Match analysis

Brighton vs Crystal Palace (Premier League). Model call: Brighton to win match full time (77% / 16% / 7%).

Brighton holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Brighton 1.88 — 0.79 Crystal Palace. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Crystal Palace. Brighton home form +0.89; Crystal Palace away form -0.9.

First-half lean: Brighton lead. Without Matias Orozco, Brighton's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Jean-Philippe Mateta, Crystal Palace's full-time attack is trimmed as well.