Arsenal
v
Chelsea

Premier League · Sun 6 Sep · 17:30 · Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Head-to-head — last 5 at Arsenal (home)

W 2026-09-06 Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
W 2026-03-01 Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
W 2025-03-16 Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea
W 2024-04-23 Arsenal 5–0 Chelsea
W 2023-05-02 Arsenal 3–1 Chelsea
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): +0.21 → Arsenal (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-07
HHull
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-11-01
ALiverpool
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HEverton
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
ANott'm Forest
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HLeeds
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
ABrighton
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
HChelsea
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-31
AAston Villa
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-21
HCoventry
W
3–0
8–2
1–1
0–0
2026-08-21
HCoventry
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ACrystal Palace
W
2–1
4–3
1–0
0–0
2026-05-18
HBurnley
W
1–0
3–3
1–3
0–0
2026-05-10
AWest Ham
W
1–0
3–4
4–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
ASunderland
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HMan United
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HTottenham
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
AEverton
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBournemouth
W
5–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-18
ABrentford
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AArsenal
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
4–6
3–2
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ASunderland
L
1–2
7–7
2–3
0–0
2026-05-19
HTottenham
W
2–1
3–4
4–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-09-06
HChelsea
W
2–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-03-01
HChelsea
W
2–1
5–10
1–3
0–1
2025-11-30
AChelsea
D
1–1
3–3
6–1
0–1
2025-03-16
HChelsea
W
1–0
5–4
3–3
0–0
2024-11-10
AChelsea
D
1–1
3–4
2–4
0–0
2024-04-23
HChelsea
W
5–0
4–2
2–2
0–0
2023-10-21
AChelsea
D
2–2
7–2
3–3
0–0
2023-05-02
HChelsea
W
3–1
7–2
0–2
0–0
2022-11-06
AChelsea
W
1–0
6–4
2–5
0–0
2022-04-20
AChelsea
W
4–2
1–6
1–3
0–0
2021-08-22
HChelsea
L
0–2
9–8
3–0
0–0
2021-05-12
AChelsea
W
1–0
1–9
1–0
0–0
2020-12-26
HChelsea
W
3–1
7–9
2–1
0–0
2020-01-21
AChelsea
D
2–2
5–17
1–2
1–0
2019-12-29
HChelsea
L
1–2
2–3
5–4
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Arsenal — higher 1H xG, SOT and possession
Arsenal
Chelsea
Possession %
59
53
xG
1.13
0.73
Shots
8.3
4.8
On target
2.6
1.7
Off target
2.9
1.4
Corners
3.0
2.5
Yellow cards
0.1
0.3
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Arsenal — higher 2H xG, SOT and shots
Arsenal
Chelsea
Possession %
48
57
xG
1.03
0.72
Shots
7.4
5.4
On target
2.8
2.1
Off target
2.4
1.9
Corners
2.4
2.3
Yellow cards
0.9
2.2
Red cards
0.0
0.3

Full-time call

BET · HOME (70.9%)
1 · Arsenal
71%
X · Draw
20%
2 · Chelsea
9%
Arsenal at home
Expected goals: 2.06
Conceded goals: 0.5
Chelsea away
Expected goals: 1.62
Conceded goals: 1.68
Projected for this match: Arsenal 1.91 — 1.05 Chelsea
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.91 — 1.05 Chelsea

Likely scores

1-110.7%
2-19.9%
1-09.6%

Goals markets

Over 1.579.8%
Over 2.556.7%
Over 3.534.3%
BTTS55.6%

Corners (90 min)

Arsenal5
Chelsea4.7

Yellow cards (90 min)

Arsenal1.7
Chelsea2.2
1H total0.9
2H total3
Kavanagh averages 3.5 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Arsenal
42%
Level
38%
Chelsea
20%
Expected 2H goals Arsenal 0.87 — 0.51 Chelsea

2H corners

Expected total5
Arsenal2.4
Chelsea2.6

2H yellow cards

Expected total3
Arsenal1.3
Chelsea1.7
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

Arsenal lead medium confidence
1H · Arsenal
46%
1H · Draw
37%
1H · Chelsea
17%
Expected 1H goals Arsenal 0.96 — 0.46 Chelsea · Over 0.5: Over (76%) · Over 1.5: Under (41%)

1H corners

Expected total4.6
Arsenal2.6
Chelsea2.1
O/U 4.5Even · 49%

1H yellow cards

Expected total0.9
Arsenal0.4
Chelsea0.6
O/U 1.5Under · 77%
2H expected total3
Arsenal 2H1.3
Chelsea 2H1.7
Kavanagh averages 1.4 yellows before HT, which lifts the 1H card line.
Kavanagh averages 2.9 yellows and 0.2 reds after HT, which lifts the 2H card line.

Viktor Gyokeres (0.29 xG) is Arsenal's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Without Mamadou Sarr (0.57 xG), Chelsea's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Squad availability

Arsenal · 4 listed

Max Dowmansuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Ezri Konsadoubt
1 · Other
William Salibadoubt
1 · Low back
Bukayo Sakainjury
1 · Thigh

Chelsea · 6 listed

Mamadou Sarrdoubt
1 · Calf
Emiliano Martinezinjury
1 · Head
Mykhaylo Mudrykinjury
1 · Ankle
Jorrel Hatodoubt
1 · Other
Jamie Gittensinjury
1 · Ankle
Maxence Lacroixinjury
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Arsenal vs Chelsea (Premier League). Model call: Arsenal to win match full time (71% / 20% / 9%).

Arsenal holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Arsenal 1.91 — 1.05 Chelsea. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Arsenal. Arsenal home form +1.56; Chelsea away form -0.06.

First-half lean: Arsenal lead. Without Max Dowman, Arsenal's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Jamie Gittens, Chelsea's full-time chance creation is trimmed.