Chelsea
v
Brighton

Premier League · Sun 30 Aug · 15:00 · Referee: Michael Oliver

Head-to-head — last 5 at Chelsea (home)

W 2026-08-30 Chelsea 4–3 Brighton
L 2025-09-27 Chelsea 1–3 Brighton
W 2024-09-28 Chelsea 4–2 Brighton
W 2023-12-03 Chelsea 3–2 Brighton
L 2023-04-15 Chelsea 1–2 Brighton
Overall H2H edge (venue-weighted, both grounds): -0.07 → Brighton (5 meetings on file)

Last Matches

Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
ASunderland
L
0–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
HMan United
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-24
HTottenham
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-17
AEverton
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
HBournemouth
W
5–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-18
ABrentford
L
0–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-12
HHull
D
2–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-06
AArsenal
L
1–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
4–6
3–2
0–0
2026-08-24
AFulham
W
3–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
ASunderland
L
1–2
7–7
2–3
0–0
2026-05-19
HTottenham
W
2–1
3–4
4–3
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-11-08
HBrentford
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-31
AMan City
W
1–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-25
ALiverpool
L
0–2
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-18
HCrystal Palace
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-10-10
ASunderland
W
2–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-19
HArsenal
W
3–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-13
ACoventry
W
5–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-09-05
HLeeds
D
1–1
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-30
AChelsea
L
3–4
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
5–2
2–3
0–1
2026-08-23
HAston Villa
W
4–0
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-05-24
HMan United
L
0–3
0–3
0–1
0–0
2026-05-17
ALeeds
L
0–1
8–7
0–1
0–0
Date
Opponent
Goals
Corners
Yellow
Red
2026-08-30
HBrighton
W
4–3
0–0
0–0
0–0
2026-04-21
ABrighton
L
0–3
5–6
1–1
0–0
2025-09-27
HBrighton
L
1–3
5–7
3–5
1–0
2025-02-14
ABrighton
L
0–3
9–2
2–1
0–0
2024-09-28
HBrighton
W
4–2
8–2
3–2
0–0
2024-05-15
ABrighton
W
2–1
6–4
2–2
1–0
2023-12-03
HBrighton
W
3–2
5–8
3–5
1–0
2023-04-15
HBrighton
L
1–2
2–8
2–2
0–0
2022-10-29
ABrighton
L
1–4
7–8
2–1
0–0
2022-01-18
ABrighton
D
1–1
7–5
2–1
0–0
2021-12-29
HBrighton
D
1–1
10–8
4–1
0–0
2021-04-20
HBrighton
D
0–0
0–3
2–0
0–1
2020-09-14
ABrighton
W
3–1
3–4
0–1
0–0
2020-01-01
ABrighton
D
1–1
3–5
3–2
0–0
2019-09-28
HBrighton
W
2–0
5–2
2–3
0–0

Venue tag: H = home, A = away.

Period stats — 1H / 2H

First half lean: Chelsea — higher 1H shots
Chelsea
Brighton
Possession %
56
61
xG
0.56
0.61
Shots
6.5
4.8
On target
2.4
2.2
Off target
2.0
1.3
Corners
2.6
2.6
Yellow cards
0.8
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0
Second half lean: Brighton — higher 2H xG projection
Chelsea
Brighton
Possession %
55
57
xG
1.22
0.98
Shots
9.0
8.4
On target
2.4
2.6
Off target
2.6
3.1
Corners
3.6
3.5
Yellow cards
2.0
0.8
Red cards
0.0
0.0

Full-time call

NO BET
1 · Chelsea
25%
X · Draw
28%
2 · Brighton
47%
Chelsea at home
Expected goals: 1.23
Conceded goals: 1.49
Brighton away
Expected goals: 1.17
Conceded goals: 1.3
Projected for this match: Chelsea 1.29 — 1.76 Brighton
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.29 — 1.76 Brighton

Likely scores

1-111.1%
1-29.5%
0-18%

Goals markets

Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.558.9%
Over 3.536.5%
BTTS60.4%

Corners (90 min)

Chelsea5.2
Brighton4.8

Yellow cards (90 min)

Chelsea2.3
Brighton1.8
1H total1.5
2H total2.7
Oliver averages 3.3 yellows a match, which trims the full-time card line.

Second half

Chelsea
23%
Level
40%
Brighton
37%
Expected 2H goals Chelsea 0.55 — 0.78 Brighton

2H corners

Expected total5.3
Chelsea2.5
Brighton2.8

2H yellow cards

Expected total2.7
Chelsea1.7
Brighton1
2H reds (exp.)0.1

First half

No bet no-bet confidence
1H · Chelsea
24%
1H · Draw
36%
1H · Brighton
40%
Expected 1H goals Chelsea 0.64 — 0.93 Brighton · Over 0.5: Over (79%) · Over 1.5: Under (47%)

1H corners

Expected total4.7
Chelsea2.7
Brighton2
O/U 4.5Even · 51%

1H yellow cards

Expected total1.5
Chelsea0.6
Brighton0.8
O/U 1.5Under · 56%
2H expected total2.7
Chelsea 2H1.7
Brighton 2H1
Oliver averages 0.8 yellows before HT, which trims the 1H card line.
Oliver averages 2.9 yellows after HT, which lifts the 2H card line.

Without Mamadou Sarr (0.57 xG), Chelsea's first-half goal line is trimmed.

Danny Welbeck (0.25 xG) is Brighton's main first-half threat, which lifts the 1H goal line if they start.

Squad availability

Chelsea · 6 listed

Mamadou Sarrdoubt
1 · Calf
Emiliano Martinezinjury
1 · Head
Mykhaylo Mudrykinjury
1 · Ankle
Jorrel Hatodoubt
1 · Other
Jamie Gittensinjury
1 · Ankle
Maxence Lacroixinjury
1 · Thigh

Brighton · 8 listed

Matias Orozcosuspension
1 · Red card (direct)
Pascal Struijkdoubt
1 · Thigh
Femi Azeezinjury
1 · Thigh
Zadok Yohannainjury
1 · Other
Kaoru Mitomainjury
1 · Hamstring
Stefanos Tzimasinjury
1 · Cruciate ligame
Evan Fergusoninjury
1 · Ankle
Carlos Balebainjury
1 · Thigh

Match analysis

Chelsea vs Brighton (Premier League). Model call: Brighton to win match full time (25% / 28% / 47%).

Brighton holds the stronger recent form (last 5, opponent-strength weighted). Projected xG Chelsea 1.29 — 1.76 Brighton. H2H (5 meetings, venue-weighted) leans Brighton. Chelsea home form -0.26; Brighton away form -0.13.

First-half lean: No bet. Without Jamie Gittens, Chelsea's full-time chance creation is trimmed. Without Matias Orozco, Brighton's full-time chance creation is trimmed.